Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
