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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the current competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still